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Since its original publication, Expert Political Judgment by New York Times bestselling author Philip Tetlock has established itself as a contemporary classic in the literature on evaluating expert opinion.Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting. Classifying thinking styles using Isaiah Berlin's prototypes of the fox and the hedgehog, Tetlock contends that the fox--the thinker who knows many little things, draws from an eclectic array of traditions, and is better able to improvise in response to changing events--is more successful in predicting the future than the hedgehog, who knows one big thing, toils devotedly within one tradition, and imposes formulaic solutions on ill-defined problems. He notes a perversely inverse relationship between the best scientific indicators of good judgement and the qualities that the media most prizes in pundits--the single-minded determination required to prevail in ideological combat. Clearly written and impeccably researched, the book fills a huge void in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. It will appeal across many academic disciplines as well as to corporations seeking to develop standards for judging expert decision-making. Now with a new preface in which Tetlock discusses the latest research in the field, the book explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts.

The intelligence failures surrounding the invasion of Iraq dramatically illustrate the necessity of developing standards for evaluating expert opinion. This book fills that need. Here, Philip E. Tetlock explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events, and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting. Classifying thinking styles using Isaiah Berlin's prototypes of the fox and the hedgehog, Tetlock contends that the fox--the thinker who knows many little things, draws from an eclectic array of traditions, and is better able to improvise in response to changing events--is more successful in predicting the future than the hedgehog, who knows one big thing, toils devotedly within one tradition, and imposes formulaic solutions on ill-defined problems. He notes a perversely inverse relationship between the best scientific indicators of good judgement and the qualities that the media most prizes in pundits--the single-minded determination required to prevail in ideological combat. Clearly written and impeccably researched, the book fills a huge void in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. It will appeal across many academic disciplines as well as to corporations seeking to develop standards for judging expert decision-making.

Comprehensive in scope and easy to use, Atlas of Gynecologic Surgical Pathology, 4th Edition, provides the current, authoritative information you need to effectively sign out cases in female genital pathology. In this 4th Edition, internationally renowned authors Drs. Philip B. Clement and Robert H. Young are joined by new co-author Dr. Jennifer Stall to continue this bestselling atlas's tradition of excellence. Hundreds of superb pathologic images, diagnostic pearls, and fully updated content make this practical, bench-side resource ideal for minimizing risks in reporting both routine and difficult cases.

Improve your skill and confidence dramatically with the advice and tips of renowned watercolor expert, Aubrey Phillips.

Improve your skill and confidence dramatically with the advice and tips of renowned watercolor expert, Aubrey Phillips.

An internationally renowned set of experts on epigram offers an introduction, fresh approaches, and new direction to the study of Hellenistic-era epigram by exploring the models, forms, poetology, sub-genera, intertexts, and ancient and modern reception of Hellenistic epigram.

Of the 1995 full-length edition:`Aristophanes addicts unite! This book is for us. It has everything that we always wanted to know about Birds and we were unable to find in one place.' Greek Gazette `The commentary elucidates with an experts knowledge of syntax, meter, and artifacts.... The volume will remain authoritative for generations.

The Right and the Good, a classic of twentieth-century philosophy by the eminent scholar Sir David Ross, is now presented in a new edition with a substantial introduction by Philip Stratton-Lake, a leading expert on Ross. Ross's book is the pinnacle of ethical intuitionism, which was the dominant moral theory in British philosophy for much of the nineteenth and early twentieth century. Intuitionism is now enjoying a considerable revival, and Stratton-Lake provides the context for a proper understanding of Ross's great work today.

This newly updated, streamlined, and more affordable edition of Group Psychotherapy with Addicted Populations provides proven strategies for combating alcohol and drug addiction through group psychotherapy. Philip J. Flores, a highly regarded expert in the treatment of alcoholism and in group psychotherapy, brings together practical applications of 12-step programs and psychodynamic groups. This classic text explores the latest knowledge on the benefits of group therapy to chemically dependent individuals by providing opportunities to understand their own attitudes about addiction through working with others while learning to more effectively communicate their own needs and emotions.

Covering the mental health expert's many roles as therapist, mediator, evaluator, consultant to attorneys, expert witness, and more, Philip M. Stahl's Conducting Child Custody Evaluations: From Basic to Complex Issues addresses key topics

The new Kenya Highlights takes the best of this magnificent country and condenses it into an informative guidebook designed for those visiting on organised tours. Renowned Africa expert, Philip Briggs – author of ten Bradt guides, and arguably the best-respected guidebook writer on the region – chooses the highlights of each region of the country (including the parks and reserves), and provides full background information, together with all the practical information required by a visitor on a tour. There's a chapter offering advice on planning a safari holiday, detailed sections on wildlife, history and people, and suggested lodge accommodation (selected in conjunction with some leading tour operators to Kenya). Featuring beautiful full-colour photos and maps throughout, this book serves equally as a holiday planner, a travel companion and a memento of your trip.

An expert royalty watcher exposes the private lives of Britain's ruling dynasty, detailing Elizabeth's celibacy, Prince Philip's adulterous affairs, and the demise of Charles and Diana's and Andrew and Fergie's marriages. 50,000 first printing. $50,000 ad/promo. Tour.

Covering the mental health expert's many roles as therapist, mediator, evaluator, consultant to attorneys, expert witness, and more, Philip M. Stahl's Conducting Child Custody Evaluations: From Basic to Complex Issues addresses key topics

The Right and the Good, a classic of twentieth-century philosophy by the eminent scholar Sir David Ross, is now presented in a new edition with a substantial introduction by Philip Stratton-Lake, a leading expert on Ross. Ross's book is the pinnacle of ethical intuitionism, which was the dominant moral theory in British philosophy for much of the nineteenth and early twentieth century. Intuitionism is now enjoying a considerable revival, and Stratton-Lake provides the context for a proper understanding of Ross's great work today.

After sales of more than 25,000 copies and five reprints, author Philip otter has revised his previous edition on this popular British marque to include: -- New production information from previously unresearched material in the Jaguar archives-- Supplementary information from Jaguars experts-- Exclusive photographs of the finest Jaguars existenceAmong the cars featured are 1,000-mile, aluminum-bodied XK120 Roadster and a one-owner drophead. In all, more than 250 new color photographs make this the finest photo gallery of XKs anywhere.'

No one knows ghosts towns--nor what ghost town lovers want to know about them--like Philip Varney. Tony Hillerman. Get ready for adventure as ghost town expert Philip Varney takes you on a tour of Northern California’s most fascinating historic mining camps and ghost towns. Ghost Towns of Northern California provides background on the Gold Rush of 1849 and later strikes, as well as comprehensive information on more than 50 towns and sites--from out-of-the-way Campo Seco and New Idria to popular sites such as Coloma and Bodie. Varney also covers ghost forts, Chinese fishing villages, and the famous "ghost prison" of Alcratraz. If you’re an armchair visitor, you’ll appreciate the rich color photographs and descriptive text that bring the region to life. With chapters arranged by region and tons of travel information and maps, visitors will find this pictorial guide makes traveling the area a breeze. John Drew is the photographer of Ghost Towns of Colorado; he and his wife Susan Drew have photographed ghost towns throughout the West.

For more than thirty years, paranormal expert and scientist Philip Imbrogno has investigated―or been witness to―amazing phenomena that push the limits of reality. In Files From the Edge, Imbrogno presents the most shocking cases of his career, complete with eyewitness reports and never-before-released photographs. This scientific investigation into the bizarre paranormal realm of high strangeness features never-before-published, meticulously documented research on the weirdest of the weird―abductions, encounters, and sightings of Bigfoot, sea serpents, and the blood-sucking Chupacabra. Imbrogno examines reports of poltergeists, alien creatures, humanoids, spook lights, ghost voices, earth spirits, and djinn. Using the latest quantum theory, he offers a scientific analysis of how these phantoms of time and space might materialize in our three-dimensional world. Many of the topics covered in this book have been virtually unpublished―until now

Businesses can do well by doing good -- Kotler, Hessekiel, and Lee show you how! Marketing guru Philip Kotler, cause marketing authority David Hessekiel, and social marketing expert Nancy Lee have teamed up to create a guide rich with actionable advice on integrating marketing and corporate social initiatives into your broader business goals. Businesspeople who mix cause and commerce are often portrayed as either opportunistic corporate "causewashers" cynically exploiting nonprofits, or visionary social entrepreneurs for whom conducting trade is just a necessary evil in their quest to create a better world. Marketing and corporate social initiatives requires a delicate balancing act between generating financial and social dividends. Good Works is a book for business builders, not a Corporate Social Responsibility treatise. It is for capitalists with the hearts and smarts to generate positive social impacts and bottom-line business results. Good Works is rich with actionable advice on integrating marketing and corporate social initiatives into your broader business goals. Makes the case that purpose-driven marketing has moved from a nice-to-do to a must-do for businesses Explains how to balance social and business goals Author Philip Kotler is one of the world's leading authorities on marketing; David Hessekiel is founder and President of Cause Marketing Forum, the world's leading information source on how to do well by doing good; Nancy Lee is a corporate social marketing expert, and has coauthored books on social marketing with Philip Kotler With Good Works, you'll find that you can generate significant resources for your cause while achieving financial success.

It's the edition that helps students learn the piece, designed by one of the world's leading experts on practicing. Every Bootcamp Edition score features hundreds of bite-sized practice challenges to complete. Defeat all the challenges, and you'll be concert ready. From Philip Johnston, one of music teaching's best known writers and lateral thinkers, and author of Practiceopedia. Recordings of the pieces are available on YouTube: search for "The Bootcamp Edition". 

 Ghost Towns of California is a guidebook to the state's best boomtowns. Once thriving, these abandoned mining camps and pioneer villages still ring with history. Ghost town expert Philip Varney equips you with everything you need to know to explore these remnants of the past. Featured are color maps, driving and walking directions, town histories, touring recommendations, and stunning color photography of 70 sites, including the famous Bodie. Come see where it all started at the mother lode, and trace the great migration throughout the region. Visit the northern mines and the ghosts of San Francisco Bay, the Eastern Sierra, Death Valley, and the Mojave Desert. This is the essential guidebook to the glory days of the Old West!