33 products were found matching your search for Philips FC974509 PowerPro Expert in 2 shops:

The intelligence failures surrounding the invasion of Iraq dramatically illustrate the necessity of developing standards for evaluating expert opinion. This book fills that need. Here, Philip E. Tetlock explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events, and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting. Classifying thinking styles using Isaiah Berlin's prototypes of the fox and the hedgehog, Tetlock contends that the fox--the thinker who knows many little things, draws from an eclectic array of traditions, and is better able to improvise in response to changing events--is more successful in predicting the future than the hedgehog, who knows one big thing, toils devotedly within one tradition, and imposes formulaic solutions on ill-defined problems. He notes a perversely inverse relationship between the best scientific indicators of good judgement and the qualities that the media most prizes in pundits--the single-minded determination required to prevail in ideological combat. Clearly written and impeccably researched, the book fills a huge void in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. It will appeal across many academic disciplines as well as to corporations seeking to develop standards for judging expert decision-making.

Since its original publication, Expert Political Judgment by New York Times bestselling author Philip Tetlock has established itself as a contemporary classic in the literature on evaluating expert opinion.Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting. Classifying thinking styles using Isaiah Berlin's prototypes of the fox and the hedgehog, Tetlock contends that the fox--the thinker who knows many little things, draws from an eclectic array of traditions, and is better able to improvise in response to changing events--is more successful in predicting the future than the hedgehog, who knows one big thing, toils devotedly within one tradition, and imposes formulaic solutions on ill-defined problems. He notes a perversely inverse relationship between the best scientific indicators of good judgement and the qualities that the media most prizes in pundits--the single-minded determination required to prevail in ideological combat. Clearly written and impeccably researched, the book fills a huge void in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. It will appeal across many academic disciplines as well as to corporations seeking to develop standards for judging expert decision-making. Now with a new preface in which Tetlock discusses the latest research in the field, the book explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts.

The intelligence failures surrounding the invasion of Iraq dramatically illustrate the necessity of developing standards for evaluating expert opinion. This book fills that need. Here, Philip E. Tetlock explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events, and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting. Classifying thinking styles using Isaiah Berlin's prototypes of the fox and the hedgehog, Tetlock contends that the fox--the thinker who knows many little things, draws from an eclectic array of traditions, and is better able to improvise in response to changing events--is more successful in predicting the future than the hedgehog, who knows one big thing, toils devotedly within one tradition, and imposes formulaic solutions on ill-defined problems. He notes a perversely inverse relationship between the best scientific indicators of good judgement and the qualities that the media most prizes in pundits--the single-minded determination required to prevail in ideological combat. Clearly written and impeccably researched, the book fills a huge void in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. It will appeal across many academic disciplines as well as to corporations seeking to develop standards for judging expert decision-making.

Comprehensive in scope and easy to use, Atlas of Gynecologic Surgical Pathology, 4th Edition, provides the current, authoritative information you need to effectively sign out cases in female genital pathology. In this 4th Edition, internationally renowned authors Drs. Philip B. Clement and Robert H. Young are joined by new co-author Dr. Jennifer Stall to continue this bestselling atlas's tradition of excellence. Hundreds of superb pathologic images, diagnostic pearls, and fully updated content make this practical, bench-side resource ideal for minimizing risks in reporting both routine and difficult cases.

An internationally renowned set of experts on epigram offers an introduction, fresh approaches, and new direction to the study of Hellenistic-era epigram by exploring the models, forms, poetology, sub-genera, intertexts, and ancient and modern reception of Hellenistic epigram.

Improve your skill and confidence dramatically with the advice and tips of renowned watercolor expert, Aubrey Phillips.

Improve your skill and confidence dramatically with the advice and tips of renowned watercolor expert, Aubrey Phillips.

Of the 1995 full-length edition:`Aristophanes addicts unite! This book is for us. It has everything that we always wanted to know about Birds and we were unable to find in one place.' Greek Gazette `The commentary elucidates with an experts knowledge of syntax, meter, and artifacts.... The volume will remain authoritative for generations.

For more than thirty years, paranormal expert and scientist Philip Imbrogno has investigated―or been witness to―amazing phenomena that push the limits of reality. In Files From the Edge, Imbrogno presents the most shocking cases of his career, complete with eyewitness reports and never-before-released photographs. This scientific investigation into the bizarre paranormal realm of high strangeness features never-before-published, meticulously documented research on the weirdest of the weird―abductions, encounters, and sightings of Bigfoot, sea serpents, and the blood-sucking Chupacabra. Imbrogno examines reports of poltergeists, alien creatures, humanoids, spook lights, ghost voices, earth spirits, and djinn. Using the latest quantum theory, he offers a scientific analysis of how these phantoms of time and space might materialize in our three-dimensional world. Many of the topics covered in this book have been virtually unpublished―until now

Going well beyond the masterful presentationof Buddhism in the bestselling The World's Religions, Huston Smith and his premier student Philip Novak offer an expert, contemporary, yet highly readable and incisive guide to the heart of this vibrantly diverse and rapidly growing tradition, one that has an increasing presence and importance on the American scene. Smith is universally regarded as the leading authority on the world's religious traditions, and Novak is an award-winning professor of world religions and a Buddhist practitioner immersed in the contemporary worlds of American and Asian Buddhism.Smith and Novak respectfully cover the essential teachings, practices, and historical development of Buddhism in all its rich variety. Beginning with the life and legend of the Buddha, Buddhism explores core Buddhist doctrines such as the Four Noble Truths, the Eightfold Path, nirvana, and emptiness. The authors go on to discuss the split between Theravada and Mahayana Buddhism, the continued divisions of Mahayana into Pure Land, Zen, and Tibetan Buddhism, and the confluence of Hinduism and Buddhism in India. The second half of the book follows the global migration of Buddhism and its continuing diversification and development in the West, especially in America. This compelling work by two great scholars -- a legendary teacher and his long-time student and colleague -- is the most insightful, up-to-date, and accessible introduction to this great and immensely appealing religious tradition available today.

Learn the seven little-known rules of credit. Turn poor credit into GREAT credit. SAVE hundreds of dollars every single month! In 7 Steps To A 720 Credit Score, credit and personal finance expert Philip X. Tirone will teach you the seven steps for playing the credit game so that you will establish great credit in as little as three months!

Covering the mental health expert's many roles as therapist, mediator, evaluator, consultant to attorneys, expert witness, and more, Philip M. Stahl's Conducting Child Custody Evaluations: From Basic to Complex Issues addresses key topics

Ballistics Explained...In Plain Language! The physics of firearms and ammunition can be difficult to understand, with numerous technical terms and definitions that warrant explanation. In Big Book of Ballistics, author and ballistics expert Philip Massaro lifts the veil. He explains interior, exterior and terminal ballistics in plain language. Massaro takes you on a journey that starts inside the cartridge case and terminates on the other side of a blasted-out target. Whether new or experienced, your knowledge of bullet performance and choice will be pushed to the absolute limit, as the world of factory and custom bullet and component choices is revealed. No dry technical manual, Big Book of Ballistics relies on Massaro's worldwide pursuit of small, medium and dangerous game adventure in heart-pounding true stories that make the science of ballistics as real as it gets. Inside the book:The terminology of ballistics in plain languageHow to choose the best ammunitionSuccessful long-range shooting principlesTerminal ballistics of hunting, target and self-defense bulletsIllustrative charts/graphs depict comparisons between bullet shapes, trajectories and wind driftModern developments in bullet technology can greatly enhance hunting and shooting performance. Understand the ballistic benefits with Big Book of Ballistics.

An expert royalty watcher exposes the private lives of Britain's ruling dynasty, detailing Elizabeth's celibacy, Prince Philip's adulterous affairs, and the demise of Charles and Diana's and Andrew and Fergie's marriages. 50,000 first printing. $50,000 ad/promo. Tour.

The new Kenya Highlights takes the best of this magnificent country and condenses it into an informative guidebook designed for those visiting on organised tours. Renowned Africa expert, Philip Briggs – author of ten Bradt guides, and arguably the best-respected guidebook writer on the region – chooses the highlights of each region of the country (including the parks and reserves), and provides full background information, together with all the practical information required by a visitor on a tour. There's a chapter offering advice on planning a safari holiday, detailed sections on wildlife, history and people, and suggested lodge accommodation (selected in conjunction with some leading tour operators to Kenya). Featuring beautiful full-colour photos and maps throughout, this book serves equally as a holiday planner, a travel companion and a memento of your trip.

The Right and the Good, a classic of twentieth-century philosophy by the eminent scholar Sir David Ross, is now presented in a new edition with a substantial introduction by Philip Stratton-Lake, a leading expert on Ross. Ross's book is the pinnacle of ethical intuitionism, which was the dominant moral theory in British philosophy for much of the nineteenth and early twentieth century. Intuitionism is now enjoying a considerable revival, and Stratton-Lake provides the context for a proper understanding of Ross's great work today.

This newly updated, streamlined, and more affordable edition of Group Psychotherapy with Addicted Populations provides proven strategies for combating alcohol and drug addiction through group psychotherapy. Philip J. Flores, a highly regarded expert in the treatment of alcoholism and in group psychotherapy, brings together practical applications of 12-step programs and psychodynamic groups. This classic text explores the latest knowledge on the benefits of group therapy to chemically dependent individuals by providing opportunities to understand their own attitudes about addiction through working with others while learning to more effectively communicate their own needs and emotions.

Businesses can do well by doing good -- Kotler, Hessekiel, and Lee show you how! Marketing guru Philip Kotler, cause marketing authority David Hessekiel, and social marketing expert Nancy Lee have teamed up to create a guide rich with actionable advice on integrating marketing and corporate social initiatives into your broader business goals. Businesspeople who mix cause and commerce are often portrayed as either opportunistic corporate "causewashers" cynically exploiting nonprofits, or visionary social entrepreneurs for whom conducting trade is just a necessary evil in their quest to create a better world. Marketing and corporate social initiatives requires a delicate balancing act between generating financial and social dividends. Good Works is a book for business builders, not a Corporate Social Responsibility treatise. It is for capitalists with the hearts and smarts to generate positive social impacts and bottom-line business results. Good Works is rich with actionable advice on integrating marketing and corporate social initiatives into your broader business goals. Makes the case that purpose-driven marketing has moved from a nice-to-do to a must-do for businesses Explains how to balance social and business goals Author Philip Kotler is one of the world's leading authorities on marketing; David Hessekiel is founder and President of Cause Marketing Forum, the world's leading information source on how to do well by doing good; Nancy Lee is a corporate social marketing expert, and has coauthored books on social marketing with Philip Kotler With Good Works, you'll find that you can generate significant resources for your cause while achieving financial success.

 Ghost Towns of California is a guidebook to the state's best boomtowns. Once thriving, these abandoned mining camps and pioneer villages still ring with history. Ghost town expert Philip Varney equips you with everything you need to know to explore these remnants of the past. Featured are color maps, driving and walking directions, town histories, touring recommendations, and stunning color photography of 70 sites, including the famous Bodie. Come see where it all started at the mother lode, and trace the great migration throughout the region. Visit the northern mines and the ghosts of San Francisco Bay, the Eastern Sierra, Death Valley, and the Mojave Desert. This is the essential guidebook to the glory days of the Old West!

It's the edition that helps students learn the piece, designed by one of the world's leading experts on practicing. Every Bootcamp Edition score features hundreds of bite-sized practice challenges to complete. Defeat all the challenges, and you'll be concert ready. From Philip Johnston, one of music teaching's best known writers and lateral thinkers, and author of Practiceopedia. Recordings of the pieces are available on YouTube: search for "The Bootcamp Edition".