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Foreword, Steven Landsburg 1. Introduction, Alexander Tabarrok Part I. Wealth and Health Insurance 2. Macro Markets and Financial Security, Stefano Athanasoulis, Robert Shiller, and Eric van Wincoop 3. Gene Insurance, Alexander Tabarrol 4. Time-Consistent Health Insurance, John H. Cochrane Part II. The Use of Information in Markets 5. Decision Markets, Robin D. Hanson Part III. The Shortage of Human Organs 6. A Market for Organs, Andy H. Barnett, Roger D. Blair, and David L. Kaserman 7. The Organ Shortage: A Tragedy of the Commons?, Alexander Tabarrok Part IV. Efficient Justice 8. A Modest Proposal to Improve Judicial Incentives, Steven Landsburg 9. Privatizing Probation and Parole, Morgan Reynolds 10. More Justice for Less Money: A Step beyond Cimino, David Friedman Part V. Bankruptcy and Securities Regulation 11. Improving Bankruptcy Procedure, Philippe Aghion, Oliver Hart, and John Moore 12. Empowering Investors: A Market Approach to Securities Regulation, Roberta Romano Part VI. Patents without Monopoly 13. Patent Buyouts: A Mechanism for Encouraging Innovation, Michael Kremer VII. Urban Transit 14. Curb Rights: Eliciting Competition and Entrepreneurship in Urban Transit, Daniel B. Klein, Adrian T. Moore, and Binyam Reja Index About the Independent Institute

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In this revised, updated, and expanded edition of his New York Times bestseller, Nobel Prize–winning economist Robert Shiller, who warned of both the tech and housing bubbles, cautions that signs of irrational exuberance among investors have only increased since the 2008–9 financial crisis. With high stock and bond prices and the rising cost of housing, the post-subprime boom may well turn out to be another illustration of Shiller's influential argument that psychologically driven volatility is an inherent characteristic of all asset markets. In other words, Irrational Exuberance is as relevant as ever. Previous editions covered the stock and housing markets―and famously predicted their crashes. This edition expands its coverage to include the bond market, so that the book now addresses all of the major investment markets. It also includes updated data throughout, as well as Shiller's 2013 Nobel Prize lecture, which places the book in broader context. In addition to diagnosing the causes of asset bubbles, Irrational Exuberance recommends urgent policy changes to lessen their likelihood and severity―and suggests ways that individuals can decrease their risk before the next bubble bursts. No one whose future depends on a retirement account, a house, or other investments can afford not to read this book.

En esta edición revisada, actualizada y ampliada de su bestseller del New York Times, el economista ganador del Premio Nobel Robert Shiller, que ya advirtió de la burbuja tecnológica y de la de la vivienda, ahora nos alerta de que los signos de la exuberancia irracional de los inversores no han hecho más que aumentar desde la crisis financiera de 2008-2009. Con los precios de las acciones y los bonos disparados en Estados Unidos y el incremento del precio de la vivienda en muchos países, el boom post-subprime bien puede llegar a convertirse una demostración más del argumento de Shiller sobre la volatilidad impulsada por los vaivenes psicológicos inherente a todos los mercados activos. En otras palabras, Exuberancia irracional sigue siendo una obra tan relevante como siempre. Pero, además, la importancia de Exuberancia irracional trata de algo mucho más importante que la situación actual en un mercado determinado, pues el libro analiza las fuerzas que se mueven todos los mercados arriba y abajo. Muestra cómo la euforia inversora puede llevar los precios de los activos hasta cotas vertiginosas e insostenibles y cómo, en otras ocasiones, el desaliento inversor puede hacer bajar los precios a niveles muy bajos. Las anteriores ediciones del libro trataron los mercados de valores e inmobiliario y se hicieron famosas por predecir sus crashes. Esta nueva edición amplía su alcance para incluir el mercado de bonos, por lo que el libro se dirige ahora a todos los principales mercados de inversión. Para esta edición se han actualizado todos los datos y se ha añadido el parlamento que ofreció Shiller al recibir el Premio Nobel. Además de diagnosticar las causas de las burbujas de activos, Exuberancia irracional recomienda cambios urgentes en las políticas económicas y financieras para disminuir la probabilidad de que se repitan o, por lo menos, su gravedad, y aconseja a los inversores algunas medidas para reducir su riesgo antes de que estalle la próxima b[...]

With a new Afterword on the current state of the stock market, the ongoing debate over the “new economy,” and the larger implications of “irrational exuberance.”In this controversial, hard-hitting account of today’s explosive market, Robert J. Shiller, a leading expert on market volatility, evokes Alan Greenspan’s infamous 1996 reference, “irrational exuberance,” to explain the alternately soaring and declining stock market. Shiller’s unconventional yet persuasive argument credits an unprecedented confluence of events with driving stocks to uncharted heights, and he analyzes the structural, cultural, and psychological factors behind these levels of growth not reflected in any other sector of the economy. Now more relevant than ever, this analysis is both chilling and convincing—a must-read for the individual investor, the policy maker, and the investment professional.

Presents Shiller's dramatic masterpiece, the "Wallenstein" trilogy, and "Mary Stuart" in their entirety. Includes notes on the historical background of both plays.

As Robert Shiller’s new 2009 preface to his prescient classic on behavioral economics and market volatility asserts, the irrational exuberance of the stock and housing markets “has been ended by an economic crisis of a magnitude not seen since the Great Depression of the 1930s.” As we all, ordinary Americans and professional investors alike, crawl from the wreckage of our heedless bubble economy, the shrewd insights and sober warnings, and hard facts that Shiller marshals in this book are more invaluable than ever. The original and bestselling 2000 edition of Irrational Exuberance evoked Alan Greenspan’s infamous 1996 use of that phrase to explain the alternately soaring and declining stock market. It predicted the collapse of the tech stock bubble through an analysis of the structural, cultural, and psychological factors behind levels of price growth not reflected in any other sector of the economy. In the second edition (2005), Shiller folded real estate into his analysis of market volatility, marshalling evidence that housing prices were dangerously inflated as well, a bubble that could soon burst, leading to a “string of bankruptcies” and a “worldwide recession.” That indeed came to pass, with consequences that the 2009 preface to this edition deals with. Irrational Exuberance is more than ever a cogent, chilling, and astonishingly far-seeing analytical work that no one with any money in any market anywhere can afford not to read–and heed.

In his best-selling Irrational Exuberance, Robert Shiller cautioned that society's obsession with the stock market was fueling the volatility that has since made a roller coaster of the financial system. Less noted was Shiller's admonition that our infatuation with the stock market distracts us from more durable economic prospects. These lie in the hidden potential of real assets, such as income from our livelihoods and homes. But these ''ordinary riches,'' so fundamental to our well-being, are increasingly exposed to the pervasive risks of a rapidly changing global economy. This compelling and important new book presents a fresh vision for hedging risk and securing our economic future. Shiller describes six fundamental ideas for using modern information technology and advanced financial theory to temper basic risks that have been ignored by risk management institutions--risks to the value of our jobs and our homes, to the vitality of our communities, and to the very stability of national economies. Informed by a comprehensive risk information database, this new financial order would include global markets for trading risks and exploiting myriad new financial opportunities, from inequality insurance to intergenerational social security. Just as developments in insuring risks to life, health, and catastrophe have given us a quality of life unimaginable a century ago, so Shiller's plan for securing crucial assets promises to substantially enrich our condition. Once again providing an enormous service, Shiller gives us a powerful means to convert our ordinary riches into a level of economic security, equity, and growth never before seen. And once again, what Robert Shiller says should be read and heeded by anyone with a stake in the economy.

In his best-selling Irrational Exuberance, Robert Shiller cautioned that society's obsession with the stock market was fueling the volatility that has since made a roller coaster of the financial system. Less noted was Shiller's admonition that our infatuation with the stock market distracts us from more durable economic prospects. These lie in the hidden potential of real assets, such as income from our livelihoods and homes. But these ''ordinary riches,'' so fundamental to our well-being, are increasingly exposed to the pervasive risks of a rapidly changing global economy. This compelling and important new book presents a fresh vision for hedging risk and securing our economic future. Shiller describes six fundamental ideas for using modern information technology and advanced financial theory to temper basic risks that have been ignored by risk management institutions--risks to the value of our jobs and our homes, to the vitality of our communities, and to the very stability of national economies. Informed by a comprehensive risk information database, this new financial order would include global markets for trading risks and exploiting myriad new financial opportunities, from inequality insurance to intergenerational social security. Just as developments in insuring risks to life, health, and catastrophe have given us a quality of life unimaginable a century ago, so Shiller's plan for securing crucial assets promises to substantially enrich our condition. Once again providing an enormous service, Shiller gives us a powerful means to convert our ordinary riches into a level of economic security, equity, and growth never before seen. And once again, what Robert Shiller says should be read and heeded by anyone with a stake in the economy.

Probing the lowest levels of the outwardly respectable London headquarters of Shiller plc, Vanessa Buckingham stumbles into a hidden world of twenty first century slavery. Turned into a living puppet by Shiller's enigmatic director, Vanessa is forced to record every detail of the slave-girls' lives; from intimate psychological testing at the mysterious Fellgrish Institute, through strict training and ultimate submission to the clients who hire them. In the process Vanessa must confront both her own true nature and a terrible dilemma: can there be such a thing as a willing slave? Should she expose Shiller's activities as immoral - or let herself become another commodity in its girlflesh trade?

En esta edición revisada, actualizada y ampliada de su bestseller del New York Times, el economista ganador del Premio Nobel Robert Shiller, que ya advirtió de la burbuja tecnológica y de la de la vivienda, ahora nos alerta de que los signos de la exuberancia irracional de los inversores no han hecho más que aumentar desde la crisis financiera de 2008-2009. Con los precios de las acciones y los bonos disparados en Estados Unidos y el incremento del precio de la vivienda en muchos países, el boom post-subprime bien puede llegar a convertirse una demostración más del argumento de Shiller sobre la volatilidad impulsada por los vaivenes psicológicos inherente a todos los mercados activos. En otras palabras, Exuberancia irracional sigue siendo una obra tan relevante como siempre. Pero, además, la importancia de Exuberancia irracional trata de algo mucho más importante que la situación actual en un mercado determinado, pues el libro analiza las fuerzas que se mueven todos los mercados arriba y abajo. Muestra cómo la euforia inversora puede llevar los precios de los activos hasta cotas vertiginosas e insostenibles y cómo, en otras ocasiones, el desaliento inversor puede hacer bajar los precios a niveles muy bajos. Las anteriores ediciones del libro trataron los mercados de valores e inmobiliario y se hicieron famosas por predecir sus crashes. Esta nueva edición amplía su alcance para incluir el mercado de bonos, por lo que el libro se dirige ahora a todos los principales mercados de inversión. Para esta edición se han actualizado todos los datos y se ha añadido el parlamento que ofreció Shiller al recibir el Premio Nobel. Además de diagnosticar las causas de las burbujas de activos, Exuberancia irracional recomienda cambios urgentes en las políticas económicas y financieras para disminuir la probabilidad de que se repitan o, por lo menos, su gravedad, y aconseja a los inversores algunas medidas para reducir su riesgo antes de que estalle la próxima b[...]

From Nobel Prize–winning economist and New York Times bestselling author Robert Shiller, a new way to think about how popular stories help drive economic eventsIn a world in which internet troll farms attempt to influence foreign elections, can we afford to ignore the power of viral stories to affect economies? In this groundbreaking book, Nobel Prize–winning economist and New York Times bestselling author Robert Shiller offers a new way to think about the economy and economic change. Using a rich array of historical examples and data, Shiller argues that studying popular stories that affect individual and collective economic behavior―what he calls "narrative economics"―has the potential to vastly improve our ability to predict, prepare for, and lessen the damage of financial crises, recessions, depressions, and other major economic events.Spread through the public in the form of popular stories, ideas can go viral and move markets―whether it's the belief that tech stocks can only go up, that housing prices never fall, or that some firms are too big to fail. Whether true or false, stories like these―transmitted by word of mouth, by the news media, and increasingly by social media―drive the economy by driving our decisions about how and where to invest, how much to spend and save, and more. But despite the obvious importance of such stories, most economists have paid little attention to them. Narrative Economics sets out to change that by laying the foundation for a way of understanding how stories help propel economic events that have had led to war, mass unemployment, and increased inequality.The stories people tell―about economic confidence or panic, housing booms, the American dream, or Bitcoin―affect economic outcomes. Narrative Economics explains how we can begin to take these stories seriously. It may be Robert Shiller's most important book to date.

Vanessa Buckingham has discovered strange contentment in the bizarre and secretive underworld of commercially organized slavery. Having accepted her own submissive nature, Vanessa is now happily working for the powerful Shiller Company as a "slave reporter" for its select publication Girlflesh News. She has also found a lover in the form of the beautiful slavegirl, Kashika. But there are forces at work that wish to destroy Shiller's carefully run unethical, slave business. Shiller's rival and archenemy the media mogul, Sir Harvey Rochester, has not given up trying to take over its operation. Having failed to use Vanessa as his unwitting pawn to expose Shiller's operation, Sir Harvey turns to other methods.

A guide to how your money is managed, with foreword by Nobel laureate Robert Shiller The Fund Industry offers a comprehensive look at mutual funds and the investment management industry, for fund investors, those working in the fund industry, service providers to the industry and students of financial institutions or capital markets. Industry experts Robert Pozen and Theresa Hamacher take readers on a tour of the business of asset management. Readers will learn how to research a fund and assess whether it's right for them; then they'll go behind the scenes to see how funds are invested, sold and regulated. This updated edition expands coverage of the segments of the industry where growth is hottest, including hedge funds, liquid alternatives, ETFs and target date funds—and adds an introduction to derivatives. Mutual funds are a key component of financial planning for 96 million Americans. Nearly a quarter of U.S. household savings are invested in funds, which give individual investors affordable access to professional management. This book provides a detailed look at how firms in the industry: Invest those savings in stocks and bonds Evaluate the risks and returns of funds Distribute funds directly to consumers or through financial advisors or retirement plans Handle the complex operational and regulatory requirements of mutual funds Vote proxies at the annual meetings of public companies Expand their operations across borders Along the way, the authors describe the latest trends and discuss the biggest controversies—all in straightforward and engaging prose. The Fund Industry is the essential guide to navigating the mutual fund industry.

A guide to how your money is managed, with foreword by Nobel laureate Robert Shiller The Fund Industry offers a comprehensive look at mutual funds and the investment management industry, for fund investors, those working in the fund industry, service providers to the industry and students of financial institutions or capital markets. Industry experts Robert Pozen and Theresa Hamacher take readers on a tour of the business of asset management. Readers will learn how to research a fund and assess whether it's right for them; then they'll go behind the scenes to see how funds are invested, sold and regulated. This updated edition expands coverage of the segments of the industry where growth is hottest, including hedge funds, liquid alternatives, ETFs and target date funds—and adds an introduction to derivatives. Mutual funds are a key component of financial planning for 96 million Americans. Nearly a quarter of U.S. household savings are invested in funds, which give individual investors affordable access to professional management. This book provides a detailed look at how firms in the industry: Invest those savings in stocks and bonds Evaluate the risks and returns of funds Distribute funds directly to consumers or through financial advisors or retirement plans Handle the complex operational and regulatory requirements of mutual funds Vote proxies at the annual meetings of public companies Expand their operations across borders Along the way, the authors describe the latest trends and discuss the biggest controversies—all in straightforward and engaging prose. The Fund Industry is the essential guide to navigating the mutual fund industry.